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QRAAM 2004 International Seminar Programme

May 9, 2004 (Sunday)
10.00 - 20.00 h
Arrival, registration and accommodation.  Registration Office - Hotel "Tsarsko selo"
20.00 h
Welcoming reception

May 10, 2004 (Monday)
Risk, Investment and Credit projects and Cash Flow Analysis
9,00 - 10,30 h
Introduction - Main steps in the loan’s decision process. Expected returns by the loans. Analysis, Assessment and Management of the Risk.
1. Decision making and risk, Decision theory and risk analysis. Risk and uncertainty. Risk definition. Bernoulli’s hypothesis for the risk and utility. Utility function. General types of the utility function.
2. Banks, Companies and Government - main players in the credits and investment activities process. Measuring the risk from the banker’s position. Main types investment projects and choosing of currency unit.
3. Risk and economic agents. Expected return, Accepted returns and Risk Free Return. Risk Aversion.
4. Cash Flow Analysis. Main parameters, Structure of the cash flow. Case study.
10,30 - 10,45 h - Coffee break
10,45 - 12,15 h
5. Cash Flow Analysis - (continuation)
6. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. Main parameters. Structure of the discounted cash flow. Case study.
12.15-13,15 h Lunch
13,15 - 14,45 h
7. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. Main parameters. Structure of the discounted cash flow. Case study - (continuation)
8. Discount Rate - DR, @. Choosing of Discount Rate, how to do this. Discount Factor - DF.
14,45 - 15,00 h - Coffee break15,00 - 16,30 h
9. Criteria for investment project’s efficiency: Net Present Value - NPV. Internal Rate of Return - IRR. Incremental Internal Rate of Return - IIRR. Pay Back Period - PBP. Discounted Pay Back Period - DPBP. Profitability Index  - PI or Profitability Ratio - PR.

May 11, 2004 (Tuesday)
Risk Analysis by Monte Carlo simulation
9,00 - 10,30 h
10. Static and dynamic Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. Deterministic vs. stochastic modeling. Setting up stochastic models.
11. NPV modeling by the raise of discount rate. Discounted cash flow analysis and the Raise of Discount Rate. Sensitivity Analysis.
10,30 - 10,45 h - Coffee break
10,45 - 12,15 h
12. Mathematical modeling. Introduction to Monte Carlo method - theory and application.
13. Monte Carlo simulation or prediction of more than three scenario of the cash flow. Main economical parameters in the Monte Carlo simulation. Model development steps.
12.15-13,15 h Lunch
13,15 - 14,45 h
14. Monte Carlo simulation or prediction of more than three scenario of cash flow. Main economical parameters in the Monte Carlo simulation. Model development steps - (continuation)
15. Defining assumptions and selecting distributions. Correlation analysis.
14,45 - 15,00 h - Coffee break
15,00 - 16,30 h
16. Criteria for investment projects assessment and investment decision. Criteria’s capacity. Independent projects. Mutual exclusive projects. Graph’s decision method. Criteria’s application.
17. Criteria for investment projects assessment and investment decision. Criteria’s capacity. Independent projects. Mutual exclusive projects. Graph’s decision method. Criteria’s application (continuation)

May 12, 2004 (Wednesday)
Risk assessment by Monte Carlo simulation - practical applications
9,00 - 10,30 h
18. Analysis of the Risk and Returns. Data fitting techniques. Defining forecasts.
10,30 - 10,45 h - Coffee break
10,45 - 12,15 h
19. Risk analysis for investment due by the final product’s prices variety. Final product’s price simulation using Monte Carlo.
12.15-13,15 h Lunch
13,15 - 14,45 h
20. Risk analysis for investment due by the final product’s prices variety. Final product’s price simulation using Monte Carlo (continuation)
14,45 - 15,00 h - Coffee break
15,00 - 16,30 h
21. Practical applications and case study - price modeling and risk measuring using GeoLariAn TM program package.

May 13, 2004 (Thursday)
Risk management by Monte Carlo simulation - practical applications
9,00 - 10,30 h
22. Practical applications and case study - price modeling and risk measuring using GeoLariAn TM program package (continuation)
10,30 - 10,45 h - Coffee break
10,45 - 12,15 h
23. Practical applications and case study - price modeling and risk measuring using GeoLariAn TM program package (continuation)
12.15-13,15 h Lunch
13,15 - 14,45 h
24. Building of economical models and risk analysis through Monte Carlo simulation by specific program packages as DecisionProTM etc.
14,45 - 15,00 h - Coffee break
15,00 - 16,30 h
25. Building of economical models and risk analysis through Monte Carlo simulation by specific program packages as DecisionPro TM etc. (continuation)

May 14, 2004 (Friday)
Real options and Monte Carlo simulation versus traditional DCF valuation
9,00 - 10,30 h
26. Scenario Analysis and Two-Dimensional Simulation. Effectively analyzing results and presentation of data.
27.  Real options as a new technology for valuing the risk more effectively.
10,30 - 10,45 h - Coffee break
10,45 - 12,15 h
26. How to measure the Risk and uncertainty? Optimization, constraints, requirements, and forecasts. Final Discussion on Risk Analysis, Risk Assessment and Risk Management?

12.15-13,15 h Lunch

Excursion to the Rila Monastery
13,30 h - Departure from "Tsarsko se lo" hotel
15,00 h - Arriving to the Rile Monastery
19,00 h - Departure from the Rila Monastery
20,30 h - Arriving to the "Tsarsko selo" hotel

May 15, 2004 (Saturday)
Free tourist program - excursion with going over the landmarks of Sofia city.

Departure from the International Seminar QRAAM 2004.

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